基于IMS微震监测系统的微震事件定位精度分析

微震监测系统对岩体发生非弹性变化造成的微震事件进行实时监测,能及时做出岩体的失稳预警,保证矿山的安全开采.根据东升庙铅锌矿的采空区的实际赋存情况,提出了布置9个检波器的监测方案,通过对该方案进行室内模拟,分别对Vert1和Vert2及其整体性进行定位精度分析,分析可知该方案是合理的.矿山构建IMS微震监测系统后,采用人工爆破定位的方法来确定该监测系统定位的准确性,通过对实测坐标和微震数据处理软件分析的坐标进行对比分析,可知该监测系统的精度是12m左右,能够实现矿山采空区的稳定性监测,满足矿山安全生产的要求.     

天津近海富营养化及环境因子的时空变化特征

基于1995—2010年监测数据,通过Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Kriging空间插值等方法,对天津近岸海域氮磷营养盐、有机污染物和富营养状况的时空变化趋势及其成因进行了分析. 结果表明:在天津近岸海域的48个监测时段中,有81.3%的监测时段处于富营养状态,有39.6%的ρ(DIN)和16.7%的ρ(DIP)超过海洋水质四类标准,有89.6%的ρ(COD_Mn)符合海洋水质一类标准;氮和磷为主要污染物,污染物质量浓度和富营养状态的季节性差异显著. ρ(DIP)、ρ(COD_Mn)和营养状态指数的年际变化主要呈下降趋势,ρ(DIN)呈先下降后显著上升的趋势;ρ(DIN)、ρ(DIP)和ρ(COD_Mn)在空间分布上基本遵循近岸高、远岸低的规律,其中ρ(DIN)和ρ(DIP)均显著呈带状分布,并且基本为北高南低. 防治天津近岸海域水体富营养化的关键是削减丰水期和平水期入海径流的氮负荷以及北部海域入海径流的磷负荷.      

"青龙奇迹"传播现象分析及其准确度探讨

在地震灾难频发及网络媒体迅速发展的背景下,"青龙奇迹"引起了公众的广泛关注和争议,其社会舆论影响不容忽视.以此为切入点,笔者一行利用2010年暑期社会实践在河北省青龙县、抚宁县进行了实地调研走访,结合学者论述、新闻报道,从灾难社会学和传播学角度,分析"青龙奇迹"传播现象,并对其准确度进行了探讨.     

基于降雨和地形特征的输出系数模型改进及精度分析

降雨是非点源污染产生的主要驱动条件,地形是非点源污染输移的重要影响因素,两者均与非点源污染紧密相关。输出系数模型是大尺度流域非点源污染模拟的常用模型,从降雨和地形对非点源污染产生、迁移的影响出发,对现有输出系数模型进行了改进,并给出了改进模型中降雨影响因子和地形影响因子的确定方法,以提高模型在大尺度流域的模拟精度。最后,以长江上游1990和2000年TN负荷估算为例,分析了模型改进前后的精度变化。精度对比表明,通过模型改进,流域综合相对误差从4502%和4249%减小到2393%和1838%,直门达站、沱江大桥站和罗渡溪站控制流域的相对误差有明显减小。改进后的输出系数模型结构更合理,模拟更符合实际。     

基于投影寻踪的洪水灾情评价插值模型

为解决单项洪水灾情等级评价指标评价结果的不相容问题,提高综合评价各层次的分辩力和评价模型的精度,本文利用投影寻踪、遗传算法、插值型曲线,为洪水灾情评价提供了一种新模型--遗传投影寻踪插值模型.通过最佳投影向量和评价指标向量的内积可把洪水灾情多维评价样本指标综合成一维投影指标,根据该投影指标值和对应等级的分布,可建立洪水灾情评价的插值模型,解决了各单项洪水灾情评价指标评价结果的不相容问题,提高了洪水灾情综合评价问题各层次的分辩力.作为示例,对中国部分省市的洪水灾情进行了综合评价.     

流动注射在线UV消解测定环境水体中的总氮研究

采用San++流动分析仪在线UV消解测定环境水体中的总氮,样品浓度在0.00~5.0 mg/L与峰高有良好的线性关系(r=0.999 6)。进行了标准样品考核和实际水样的流动注射法和国标方法的比对分析。实验结果表明:采用流动注射在线消解测定水中TN,其标样测定值均在保证值范围内,相对标准偏差小于3%;两种方法测定实际水样的结果无显著性差异且具有很好的一致性,加标回收实验的回收率在90.0%~97.7%之间,能满足地表水及排放废水中TN监测要求。     

FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD RESPONSES FOR THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH1

ABSTRACT The flooding conditions in the basin of the Red River of the North are reviewed in terms of the accuracy of the flood forecasts and the response of both the floodplain occupants and government agencies to these forecasts. The flood prediction methods in Canada and the United States are compared. The accuracy of these prediction measures for the major floods in recent history is reviewed. The differences between the way in which the American and Canadian authorities approach the flood emergencies are outlined. The accuracy of the forecasts are plotted against a number of parameters which reflect the efficiency of the flood fighting measures initiated by those flood forecasts. The significant features of these plots are discussed.     

4阶导数光谱法同时测定酚类及芳胺的统计性检验

介绍４阶导数光谱法同时测定污水中酚类及芳胺方法的统计性检验，通过样品加标回收实验以及Ｆ检验和ｔ检验证明该方法的精密度和准确度均优于国家环保局推荐的４－氨基安替比林先度法删酚和萘乙二胺偶氮光度法测芳胺的实验方法。     

Discrepant karyotypes after second- and third-trimester combined placentacentesis/amniocentesis

Cytogenetic data are presented from a total of 1306 consecutive pregnancies with successful diagnosis obtained from both chorionic villi after short-time culture (CVS-SC) and amniotic fluid cell cultures (AC); samples had been taken simultaneously at combined placentacentesis (placental biopsy) and amniocentesis during the second (92·8 per cent) and third (7·2 per cent) trimesters. Concordant results were obtained in 1218 pregnancies with a normal karyotype and in 62 pregnancies with an aberrant fetal karyotype. Discrepant, i. e. false-positive and false-negative, results were found in 26 cases (2 per cent). From these data the accuracy of CVS-SC, defined as the proportion of all correct diagnoses, is calculated to be 98 per cent. Three non-mosaic and 14 mosaic false-positive results obtained after CVS-SC could not be confirmed by AC. Related to 1235 true normal fetal karyotypes, the specificity of CVS-SC, i.e. the proportion of normal karyotypes correctly diagnosed, amounts to 98·6 per cent. In nine pregnancies, an aberrant fetal karyotype detected after AC was missed by CVS-SC. The sensitivity of CVS-SC, i.e. the proportion of abnormal fetuses correctly diagnosed (62 out of 71), amounts to 87·3 per cent in our study group.